Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka risks political isolation as rumors swirl about a potential reconciliation between President William Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This unexpected shift could realign Kenya’s political landscape and leave Musyoka sidelined as alliances evolve ahead of the 2027 elections.
The Ruto-Uhuru Truce
The speculation of a Ruto-Uhuru handshake gained momentum after the two leaders attended a high-profile Catholic event in Embu last week.
Analysts believe their meeting could signal a newfound understanding between the once-bitter rivals.
Reports suggest that some of Kenyatta’s close allies, including former Laikipia Governor Ndiritu Muriithi and Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, could secure positions in Ruto’s administration following Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s ousting.
Such a deal would be a double-edged sword for Kalonzo. While it might weaken Gachagua’s grip on Mount Kenya politics, it could also undermine Kalonzo’s efforts to consolidate opposition forces under the Azimio la Umoja banner.
Kalonzo’s Waning Coalition
Musyoka has been positioning himself as the opposition leader after Raila Odinga’s rapprochement with Ruto. However, the Azimio coalition has been steadily weakening.
Key partners like Martha Karua have distanced themselves, while Odinga’s direct engagement with Ruto has eroded the coalition’s unity.
Without the backing of key figures like Kenyatta, Musyoka’s political capital risks dwindling further.
Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party remains a significant force in Mount Kenya, and his alignment with Ruto could deliver a fatal blow to Kalonzo’s efforts to woo the region.
Mount Kenya’s Complex Dynamics
Musyoka’s overtures to Mount Kenya have been met with mixed reactions. While some leaders from the region view him as a potential ally, others see him as an outsider.
Mount Kenya politics is driven by strong local leadership, and Musyoka’s lack of deep-rooted connections could hinder his chances.
Moreover, Kenyatta’s reconciliation with Ruto would likely weaken the narrative that Musyoka has used to frame himself as a viable alternative.
Analysts believe that such a truce could expand Ruto’s political base in Mount Kenya, further isolating Musyoka.
Political Analyst Perspectives
Political analyst Albert Kasembeli warns that a Ruto-Uhuru alliance would spell doom for Musyoka’s ambitions.
“Kalonzo has already lost Raila as a steadfast ally, and without Kenyatta, his chances of leading a united opposition are slim. A Ruto-Uhuru handshake would dismantle Azimio, leaving Kalonzo politically stranded,” Kasembeli states.
Others argue that Kalonzo’s focus on Mount Kenya may be misguided. Instead, they suggest he concentrate on solidifying his traditional support base in Eastern Kenya while building alliances across other regions.
What’s at Stake for Kenyatta
While Kenyatta’s motives remain speculative, some suggest he may prioritize safeguarding his business interests over influencing Kenya’s political dynamics.
If his reconciliation with Ruto is rooted in pragmatism rather than ideology, it could reshape alliances without necessarily giving Kalonzo room to maneuver.
