The ODM at 20 celebration in Mombasa, coming just days after the burial of party founder Raila Odinga, was meant to be a moment of unity and reflection. Instead, it revealed deep tensions inside a party struggling to rediscover itself after losing the man who held it together for two decades.
With Raila gone, the political truce that ODM leaders tried to maintain quickly collapsed. What emerged in Mombasa was a clear picture of a party divided into competing camps, each claiming to be the true custodian of Railaโs legacy.
The most surprising moment came from Railaโs daughter, Winnie Odinga.
She openly questioned how her uncle, Oburu Oginga, rose to the top party position and accused some officials of treating ODM like a private poker game. Her tone was bold and emotional, coming barely a week after her fatherโs burial.
Her message was unmistakable. The Odinga family is not stepping back quietly, and anyone assuming that Railaโs exit meant their exit was mistaken.
Before Winnie spoke, leaders like Siaya Governor James Orengo and Secretary General Edwin Sifuna had already taken a hard stance. They criticized the Kenya Kwanza government sharply and insisted ODM must remain a strong opposition voice. Sifunaโs decision to give Embakasi East MP Babu Owino the microphone, despite strict speaking limitations, showed which side of the party he aligned with.
This faction wants ODM to stay vocal, ideological and grounded in activism.
On the other side is the conservative wing led by ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga. With her are former deputy party leader Hassan Joho, Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and others who insist they are following Railaโs final instructions.
Their argument is simple. Raila endorsed a broad based political cooperation with President William Ruto during his medical stay in India. They believe they are implementing what he wanted.
For Oburu, who now holds the partyโs top seat, managing these competing pressures is becoming overwhelming.
One person whose silence stood out in Mombasa was Mama Ida Odinga. For years she has quietly shaped key decisions behind the scenes.
Her absence has left many wondering whether she is choosing to withdraw or weighing her words carefully as the family navigates this transition.
Oburu has promised that the issues raised will be resolved โas a family.โ But this raises a bigger question. Should party disputes be solved through family meetings? And what happens when family interests clash with party structures?
The ODM storm comes at a time when relations within Azimio remain strained. Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa and Martha Karua still feel betrayed by the decision to enter a political arrangement with President Ruto without consulting them.
Railaโs loyalists believe the trio is acting out of bitterness and self interest. They accuse them of trying to cash in politically without contributing to ODMโs long struggle.
With Raila gone, rebuilding that coalition will not be easy.
Kalonzo Musyoka has his own troubles. His grip on the Ukambani vote is weaker than it appears. Eugene and Karua also face challenges back home. Kalonzo wants to be the oppositionโs presidential candidate in 2027, but without a united ODM behind him his chances shrink dramatically.
ODM itself is too divided to offer a unified endorsement.
There are at least three clear factions in ODM, each backed by different regions, interests and personalities. In Railaโs home turf of Nyanza the divisions are even sharper. Each faction insists it faithfully represents Railaโs last political wishes.
If no compromise is reached, they could easily break away from one another long before 2027.
President Ruto now finds himself in a strong position. His recent cooperation with Raila has given him unexpected goodwill among ODM supporters. Every ODM faction is repeating one claim: that Raila told them to work with Ruto.
This narrative gives the President an advantage in winning over communities that once opposed him fiercely. But he must be careful. ODMโs voter base is emotional, loyal and politically aware. Mishandling these new alliances could easily push them away.
A new generation of almost seven million young voters will register before 2027. Many come from ODM strongholds. Winning them requires fresh engagement, not just deals with seasoned politicians.
