A significant number of Kenyans remain cautiously optimistic yet deeply divided over the opposition’s ability to unite behind a single presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election, a new survey by TIFA Research has revealed.
The poll, conducted between November 10 and 17, interviewed 2,053 respondents across all 47 counties at their residences to gauge public opinion on the country’s political standing as the next election cycle approaches.
According to the findings released on Tuesday, 38 per cent of Kenyans expressed concern about the opposition’s delayed declaration of a joint presidential candidate and lack of clarity on its electoral strategy. Many respondents cited fears that internal divisions could weaken the opposition’s competitiveness in 2027.
The survey paints a challenging picture for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Kenya’s most popular opposition party, following the death of its long-serving leader Raila Amolo Odinga. TIFA notes that ODM’s internal cohesion has weakened, exposing sharp disagreements between party leaders and grassroots supporters over the party’s future direction.
Despite these challenges, ODM’s national popularity has risen to 20 per cent, overtaking the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which stands at 16 per cent. However, public opinion remains split over ODM’s engagement with the Kenya Kwanza administration under the Broad-Based Government arrangement.
Half of the respondents expect ODM to return fully to the opposition by 2027, while 30 per cent believe the party will remain part of the Broad-Based Government. A further 20 per cent said they were unsure of the party’s future position.
The 46-page survey also indicates that the popularity of the Broad-Based Government has grown in recent months, even before the strong performance by its constituent parties in the 24 by-elections held on November 27.
Meanwhile, the government received positive ratings for its handling of Raila Odinga’s burial. Sixty per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with how the administration managed the late ODM leader’s send-off, compared to 11 per cent who expressed dissatisfaction.
The findings highlight a politically fluid landscape, with growing support for the ruling coalition, a popular but internally divided opposition, and increasing public pressure for early unity and clarity ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
