President William Ruto faces an uphill task as he gears up for the 2027 elections, with shifting political allegiances and regional dynamics making his choice of running mate a critical decision.
The ousting of Rigathi Gachagua from the Deputy Presidency has provoked a strong backlash in Mount Kenya, a region that played a pivotal role in Ruto’s 2022 victory.
Gachagua’s supporters are now gravitating toward Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, raising concerns about Ruto’s grip on the region.
Kithure Kindiki, the new Deputy President, has yet to electrify Mount Kenya, leaving many in the region skeptical of Ruto’s leadership.
Political analyst Albert Kasembeli argues that Mount Kenya’s realignment poses a serious challenge to Ruto’s reelection bid.
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“If the President cannot resolve the Mount Kenya crisis, it will force him to turn to other regions, which complicates his traditional vote base,” Kasembeli says.
He adds that Ruto’s ability to retain support from Mount Kenya East, where Kindiki hails from, will be critical, even as Central Kenya leans toward Kalonzo.
With Mount Kenya showing signs of discontent, Ruto is eyeing Nyanza as a potential new frontier. Analysts believe that Raila Odinga’s influence in the region could prove decisive.
Should Raila secure the African Union Commission chairmanship, Ruto may inherit Raila’s political base, including Nyanza and the Coast.
However, Nyanza’s support will likely come at a price. A top ODM official, speaking on condition of anonymity, revealed that the region expects “nothing less than a substantive political carrot.” The official added, “The AU post is like butter holding two pieces of bread together. Without it, a broad-based government may not hold.”
Governance specialist Brian Mutie as quoted by section of the media sees the inclusion of a Luo running mate as a potential game-changer.
“If Ruto picks a candidate from Nyanza, such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, while keeping Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula close, he could gain significant traction in the region,” Mutie says.
However, he warns that such a move could alienate Mount Kenya East, which sees Kindiki as its beacon of political hope.
Despite the shifting alliances, Raila remains a looming factor.
A recent Infotrak poll places him as the most influential politician in the country, and his decision to either run or back a candidate could drastically shape the 2027 contest.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo recently told the the media that he believes Raila’s supporters will push him to run, regardless of the AU race outcome.
“If Raila doesn’t support Ruto, the President will struggle to win in the first round,” Maanzo asserts.
Ruto’s traditional strongholds, such as Rift Valley with its 5.7 million voters, remain steadfast.
However, Western Kenya’s 2.2 million voters and the 1.9 million votes from the Coast are battlegrounds where alliances will be key. Nairobi’s 2.4 million voters and the 882,677 votes from Northeastern are also crucial to securing a first-round victory.
Baringo North MP Joseph Makilap underscores the importance of Raila’s potential exit to Addis Ababa.
“If Raila goes to the AU, Ruto can inherit his base and reactivate the Kamatusa voting bloc that kept the late President Moi in power,” Makilap says. However, he acknowledges that without a unified strategy, the path to victory remains uncertain.
Ultimately, political analysts agree that Ruto’s 2027 campaign hinges on balancing regional interests and forming strategic alliances.
His ability to reconcile Mount Kenya’s discontent, secure Nyanza’s support, and maintain his Rift Valley stronghold will determine his success.
