President William Ruto’s political calculations in the Mount Kenya region have taken center stage in recent months, as he aims to reclaim the region’s crucial support.
Mount Kenya, once a powerful voting bloc that significantly contributed to Ruto’s 2022 victory, has seen its loyalty waver, especially with the allege rise of Rigathi Gachagua’s influence and the growing concerns of regional representation.
At the heart of Ruto’s strategy is the promise of economic empowerment, which is central to his broader “hustler” movement.
By focusing on policies that benefit small businesses, agriculture, and the youth, Ruto has attempted to create a direct link between his government and the everyday struggles of Mount Kenya residents.
According to political analyst Albert Kasembeli, Ruto’s focus on economic growth is key to his strategy.
“The region has historically been an economic powerhouse in Kenya, and Ruto’s promises of facilitating access to capital for small businesses and improving infrastructure resonate with the electorate,” he says.
Kasembeli believes that if these promises translate into tangible benefits, they will help restore the region’s trust in Ruto.
However, this economic agenda is not without its challenges. The region is dealing with high unemployment, especially among the youth, and the expectations are sky-high.
If Ruto’s government fails to deliver on these economic promises quickly, it could face backlash. Kasembeli warns that the Mount Kenya electorate, while receptive to the hustler narrative, is also increasingly impatient, especially given the high cost of living and the pressure on local businesses.
Another crucial element of Ruto’s strategy is the issue of regional representation.
Following his election, the Mount Kenya region has seen increasing calls for more representation in Ruto’s government, particularly in key positions.
However, critics argue that Ruto has not done enough to fully address the region’s concerns, especially in light of the rising influence of his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, who has emerged as a powerful figure in regional politics.
Political analyst Charles Mwangi argues that Gachagua’s growing influence in the region is both an asset and a challenge for Ruto.
“While Gachagua is a formidable force in Mount Kenya politics, his rise also represents a challenge to Ruto’s leadership in the region. It’s clear that Gachagua has his own political base, and Ruto must tread carefully to avoid alienating either faction,” Mwangi notes.
Gachagua, who is seen as a champion of the region’s interests, has increasingly presented himself as an advocate for Mount Kenya’s political and economic needs, positioning himself as an alternative to Ruto’s leadership.
This creates a delicate power balance that Ruto must navigate, or risk losing the region to his deputy’s growing political influence.
In addition to economic and political strategies, Ruto has made significant efforts to engage with the cultural and traditional leadership structures in the region.
He has sought to build alliances with local leaders, attending community forums and rallies to emphasize his commitment to the region.
Analysts, however, have mixed views on whether this will be effective. While some believe that these symbolic gestures are crucial in maintaining ties with the local electorate, others argue that they may alienate urban voters, who may feel disconnected from traditional practices.
Kasembeli observes that while cultural engagement is an important element of Mount Kenya politics, it must be balanced with urban issues.
“The region is not just rural anymore. Nairobi’s political elite and the business class are significant players, and their interests cannot be sidelined,” he adds.
Ruto’s challenge, therefore, is to maintain his appeal to both the rural and urban populations, ensuring that his message resonates across different demographics.
Despite the potential benefits of Ruto’s strategy, the risks are substantial.
The Mount Kenya region is not a monolithic bloc; it is politically diverse, with various leaders and communities holding different political views.
Ruto’s efforts to consolidate his influence in the region may alienate some, especially if they feel that their specific concerns are being overlooked.
Moreover, the growing rivalry between Ruto and Gachagua could ultimately divide the region and undermine the president’s hold on Mount Kenya.
