The recent impeachment motion against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has sent shockwaves across the Kenyan political scene, signaling potential realignments ahead of the 2027 general election.
As the dust settles, political analysts are already weighing in on how the outcome of this motion could reshape the political chessboard, particularly the balance of power between President William Ruto and his deputy.
Gachagua, a key figure in Mount Kenya politics, has found himself increasingly isolated as President Ruto shifts his focus to other regions, particularly Nyanza, Western, and the Coastal belt, where he is courting support for the 2027 elections.
On the other hand, Gachagua, reportedly eyeing a future presidential bid, has doubled down on his efforts to consolidate his influence in the Mount Kenya region, with the hope of positioning himself as the de facto GEMA leader.
Political analysts believe that Gachagua’s impeachment ordeal is a clear indication of widening cracks between him and President Ruto, with serious implications for 2027.
According to political commentator Dr. Mary Waithera , Gachagua’s impeachment motion has weakened his standing nationally but could solidify his base in Mount Kenya, where he is now seen as a martyr by some.
“The impeachment has created a sympathy factor in Mount Kenya, where Gachagua is working hard to cement his role as the region’s leader, even as he positions himself for higher office in the future,” she notes.
Gachagua’s close association with key Mount Kenya leaders has fueled speculation that he could be angling to become the region’s endorsed candidate in 2027.
Already, some GEMA kingpins, including influential business leaders and former politicians, have thrown their weight behind him, pushing for a unified Mount Kenya front under his leadership.
However, this push for regional unity is not without challenges. President Ruto’s administration has been working behind the scenes to weaken Gachagua’s grip on the region by wooing key players in Mount Kenya with strategic appointments and development projects.
“Ruto’s move is tactical—he wants to neutralize Gachagua’s influence by offering the region more than just promises of representation. He is courting GEMA leaders who are more amenable to his broader national agenda,” says political strategist Alice Wanjiru.
While Gachagua focuses on shoring up his Mount Kenya base, President Ruto is expanding his political tent beyond the region.
His outreach to the Nyanza, Western, and Coastal regions is seen as a bid to build a multi-ethnic alliance, which could counterbalance the traditional reliance on the populous Mount Kenya bloc.
Ruto’s increasing engagement with these regions, including high-profile visits and development pledges, suggests a calculated shift to widen his support base.
According to Prof. Ben Ochieng, a political scientist, Ruto’s strategy is to reduce his dependence on Mount Kenya by winning over the historically opposition-leaning regions of Nyanza and Western.
“Ruto is playing a long game by bringing Nyanza and Western on board. He is already working with leaders like Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetangula, which could deliver significant votes in 2027,” Ochieng explains.
Ruto’s efforts in the Coast region are also notable, as he builds relationships with key leaders in the area while focusing on development issues, such as port reforms and infrastructure projects, which resonate with the local electorate.
“Ruto is cleverly distributing his political capital to avoid overreliance on one region, and this could work in his favor come 2027,” says Prof. James Ochieng.
Another critical development that has emerged is the potential alliance between Deputy President Gachagua and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Rumors have been circulating that the two could be exploring a partnership, given that both leaders feel politically sidelined by President Ruto.
Political analyst Simon Githinji suggests that such an alliance could have profound consequences for the 2027 election.
“Kalonzo brings the lower Eastern region votes, while Gachagua has significant clout in Mount Kenya. If they manage to consolidate their forces, it could present a formidable challenge to Ruto’s re-election bid,” Githinji argues.
However, the success of this alliance will depend on whether Gachagua can maintain his grip on the Mount Kenya vote and if Kalonzo can rally his traditional Kamba support behind him.
“It’s a marriage of convenience at this point, but it has potential if both leaders manage to keep their bases intact,” adds Githinji.
The political realignments sparked by Gachagua’s impeachment are still unfolding, and much will depend on the outcome of these developments in the coming months.
While President Ruto is building a broad coalition to secure his re-election, Gachagua’s focus on Mount Kenya—and his rumored alliance with Kalonzo—suggests that the battle for 2027 will be fiercely contested on multiple fronts.
“The impeachment may have weakened Gachagua on the national stage, but it has opened a new chapter in Mount Kenya politics. Whether Gachagua can leverage this for a 2027 presidential bid remains to be seen, but the stage is set for significant realignments,” he concluded.
