Kenyans could face higher prices for milk, maize flour, wheat flour and other household essentials in the coming weeks, according to a new survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).
The September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, released on Tuesday, October 20, points to rising food prices amid prolonged dry weather and higher global fuel costs.
The survey shows that farmers and traders expect prices of several essential commodities to increase over the next month, raising concerns about the cost of living for households already struggling with expensive food and transport.
Packaged fresh milk is among the products facing upward pressure, with 74 per cent of respondents expecting its price to rise.
Expectations for fortified maize flour also increased, with 47 per cent of respondents anticipating higher prices, up from 31 per cent in August.
For white wheat flour, 48 per cent of respondents expected prices to increase, compared with 29 per cent in the previous survey. Meanwhile, 28 per cent anticipated higher sugar prices, up from 15 per cent in August.
The CBK attributed the expected increases largely to prolonged dry weather conditions that affected food-producing areas during the March to May long rains season.
The survey noted that milk products, wheat flour and edible oils recorded more pronounced price changes in September compared with August.
Other commodities, including cabbages, green maize and loose maize grain, also recorded price increases during the month as supplies tightened in some markets.
The central bank further pointed to the impact of elevated global oil prices and disruptions to international supply chains linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
These pressures increase production and transportation costs, which can eventually be passed on to consumers through higher retail prices.
The findings come as Kenya continues to experience pressure on household budgets. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows annual inflation reached 6.8 per cent in September 2026, up from 6.6 per cent in August.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 9.5 per cent over the year, making them one of the leading contributors to inflation. Transport costs increased by 15.6 per cent over the same period.
However, the CBK survey does not mean that every commodity listed will automatically become more expensive. It reflects the expectations of farmers and traders rather than confirmed future retail prices.
The central bank also reported improved optimism about agricultural production over the next year, with farmers anticipating above-average rainfall during the October to December short rains season.
Such rainfall could help improve food supplies and ease some price pressures in the coming months.
The survey found that 76 per cent of sampled farmers relied mainly on rain-fed agriculture, leaving their production vulnerable to changing weather patterns.
Access to subsidised fertiliser also remained important, with 79 per cent of sampled farmers reporting that they had benefited from the programme.
The CBK said inflation expectations remained within the target range in the near term, supported by exchange-rate stability and the possibility of improved food supplies from the expected short rains.
For households, the direction of food prices will depend on weather conditions, production levels, fuel costs and the availability of essential commodities in local markets.
