Political analyst and activist Morara Kebaso has cautioned that the United Opposition’s heavy reliance on tribal calculations could weaken its prospects in the 2027 presidential election.
In a statement shared on X on Tuesday, Kebaso stressed that the opposition risks losing if tribal politics continue to dominate its strategy.
“We lost it the day we went tribal. In my mind, it is not even about which county can or cannot be won by whom. That is of little concern. The moment we, the youth, surrendered our battle to the opposition to turn it into a tribal arithmetic of which tribal combination has more numbers, I knew we had lost,” Kebaso said.
He further warned that a sitting president cannot easily be defeated through tribal mobilisation alone, especially one with access to extensive campaign resources.
“No one can defeat a sitting president by using a tribal matrix, especially if he has over KSh 200 billion budget for his campaign. He will buy all the tribal kingpins except the tribe that hates him passionately and quickly and successfully run a campaign against one tribe,” he explained.
Kebaso added that the opposition is aware of these challenges and is prepared to leverage parliamentary representation to negotiate with President William Ruto after the 2027 elections.
