The once-stable Mt. Kenya region has become a battleground in a turbulent political contest between President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
This development echoes the decades-long struggles of opposition politics in Raila Odinga’s Nyanza region.
Over the past 72 months, discussions surrounding political power in Kenya have increasingly revolved around Mt. Kenya, marking a notable shift in the country’s political landscape.
Before, during, and after the 2022 General Election, much of the national political discourse was centered on Mt. Kenya, particularly after the region revolted against former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The debates about the region’s political allegiance and its unity dominated conversations, with many questioning whether this newfound allegiance would hold in the coming years.
However, the narrative has now shifted, and the mountain appears to be playing second fiddle to Raila Odinga, the “king from the lake region.” Once a formidable foe, Ruto effectively snatched the Mt. Kenya vote from Uhuru’s grasp, persuading the majority of residents to pledge their support to him.
Those who remained loyal to Uhuru often found themselves aligning with Odinga, creating a new political landscape.
In the heat of the electoral battle, the region’s political stars—Gachagua and NARC-Kenya’s Martha Karua—were positioned as key figures against Ruto’s hustler narrative.
Ruto consistently promised to counter Odinga’s influence, assuring voters that he would not repeat Uhuru’s mistakes, which he claimed involved surrendering control to Raila.
Yet, two years later, the tables have turned.
Gachagua and Karua, once celebrated as national icons, have been reduced to mere pawns in a political game dominated by Ruto and Odinga’s unexpected alliance.
With both leaders now occupying the same political space, their supporters have found themselves caught in an intricate web of shifting allegiances.
Ruto and Odinga’s collaboration, characterized by the formation of a broad-based government, signifies a potential new political union.
They are reportedly working on strategies for the upcoming 2027 elections that could significantly reshape the political dynamics.
Insiders suggest that Raila might name a preferred surrogate to be Ruto’s running mate, effectively consolidating support from Nyanza and the Western regions while diminishing Gachagua and Karua’s political bases.
As political rallies that once focused on Mt. Kenya transition to Nyanza and Western regions, Gachagua and Karua are becoming increasingly isolated.
During Ruto’s recent visit to Nyanza, senior ODM leaders publicly endorsed a political marriage between Ruto and Raila, further illustrating this shift.
Raila’s silence regarding Gachagua’s political troubles poses a significant risk. Political analysts believe that this silence could be interpreted as betrayal by the Mount Kenya electorate, who may view him as abandoning their interests.
The fallout from Gachagua’s potential impeachment could reinforce this perception, making it difficult for Odinga to reclaim the trust he built during the 2022 elections.
Meanwhile, Gachagua’s efforts to engage with other communities signal a desperate attempt to maintain political relevance.
As he reaches out to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and other Western leaders, the Deputy President may be seeking to establish a backup plan should his alliance with Ruto falter.
The political scene in Kenya is rapidly evolving, with opposition politics shifting from the familiar terrain of Nyanza to the increasingly volatile Mt. Kenya region.
As Ruto and Odinga navigate this new landscape, the political fates of figures like Gachagua and Karua hang in the balance.
The emergence of alliances and the reconfiguration of loyalties will determine not only the outcomes of future elections but also the long-term stability of political power in Kenya.
The challenges ahead will require deft maneuvering, as the stakes have never been higher in this high-stakes game of political chess.
