Public approval of Kenya’s Broad-Based Government arrangement has risen sharply in the months following the death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, though nearly half of Kenyans remain uneasy, warning that the political pact risks weakening democratic accountability.
According to a national survey conducted by TIFA Research in mid-November 2025, support for the cooperation between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister has doubled from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent in November.
The findings point to a country cautiously embracing political stability, even as concerns persist that the arrangement has blurred the traditional divide between government and opposition.
TIFA’s report indicates that the growing approval of the broad-based government is driven largely by a desire for national cohesion rather than satisfaction with government policy or economic performance.
Among respondents who support the arrangement, 72 per cent said their backing was motivated by the promotion of national unity and the reduction of ethnic tensions.
“Many Kenyans appear willing to prioritise peace and stability over traditional political competition,” the report notes.
An additional 11 per cent of supporters said the arrangement has strengthened the legitimacy and stability of governance, while 10 per cent believe it could improve the fairness of resource allocation across regions.
The shift in public sentiment has been particularly notable in former opposition strongholds. In Western Kenya, support for the broad-based government rose by 31 percentage points to 62 per cent, while in Nyanza it increased by 25 points to 59 per cent.
“These regions appear to have reassessed their relationship with the state following Raila Odinga’s final political choices and subsequent passing,” the report observes.
Despite the surge in approval, opposition to the arrangement remains significant. The survey found that 48 per cent of Kenyans still oppose the broad-based government, viewing it as a threat to democratic checks and balances.
Corruption emerged as the leading concern among critics, with 35 per cent saying the arrangement has encouraged personal enrichment and rent-seeking within government.
Another 31 per cent warned that the effective absorption of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) into the ruling coalition has weakened the opposition’s oversight role.
“The swallowing of the largest opposition party has undermined accountability and created uncertainty over who holds government to account,” the report states.
Further concerns included lack of transparency and limited public participation in decision-making, cited by 16 per cent of opponents, while 13 per cent said the arrangement has failed to address the economic pressures facing ordinary Kenyans.
One of the survey’s most striking findings is the absence of policy achievements in the reasons given for supporting the broad-based government.
Despite the administration’s emphasis on flagship initiatives such as the Hustler Fund, Social Health Authority (SHA) reforms and the Affordable Housing programme, none of the supporters cited these projects as justification for backing the political arrangement.
“This suggests that support for the Broad-Based Government is largely symbolic and political, rather than performance-driven,” the TIFA report concludes.
