President William Ruto is aggressively seeking political support from the Opposition, particularly ODM, as he faces mounting challenges within his own Kenya Kwanza alliance ahead of the 2027 elections.
With the recent fallout with his Deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, and increasing instability within Mount Kenya, Ruto’s options are narrowing, prompting him to turn to ODM leader Raila Odinga for assistance.
In recent weeks, Ruto and Raila’s relationship has evolved from political rivals to unexpected allies, with ODM MPs accompanying the President to various functions, including church services.
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The political rapprochement has stirred speculation that the two may form a strategic alliance to strengthen Ruto’s bid for re-election.
This comes after a period of unrest in the country, with youth-led protests nearly toppling Ruto’s government in June and July due to dissatisfaction over economic hardships, including rising taxes.
According to political analyst Macharia Munene, Ruto’s path to a second term appears precarious. “If elections were held today, President William Ruto would be in a big mess.
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga might help, so he cannot survive without him,” Munene told the Star.
The need for Ruto to secure Raila’s political backing became apparent when his relationship with Gachagua soured, resulting in the Deputy President’s ouster and a potential realignment of political forces.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo believes that Ruto’s strategic move to court Raila is essential for his political survival.
“Ruto is between a rock and a hard place,” Orogo stated. “He has substituted the political voting base of Mt Kenya with Nyanza and Western, and losing Raila’s support could lead to his political downfall.”
Ruto’s allies, including former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, have suggested the possibility of forming a new political alliance, drawing parallels to the 2002 Narc coalition that led to the late President Moi’s exit from power.
“What I can see is that in 2027, a new nationalist movement is loading,” Kuria said in a recent speech. “Those with brains should join because there are people who will weep from outside.”
Raila’s support base is spread across Nyanza, Western, Mombasa, Nairobi, and parts of North Eastern, all of which are crucial voting blocs for any presidential contender.
ODM leaders like Minority Leader Junet Mohammed have emphasized that any serious presidential candidate must engage with Raila to access these regions. “Those who want to speak to our people must speak to Baba and ODM,” Mohammed said, reaffirming the importance of Raila’s endorsement.
However, securing Western Kenya’s support for Ruto in 2027 may not be straightforward.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi has expressed skepticism about Ruto’s chances in the region, citing historical injustices and a deep-seated desire for a fair share of political representation. “Western will not be a walk in the park,” Amisi stated.
The behind-the-scenes political maneuvering has been evident in recent events, such as the unexpected appearances of UDA stalwarts at ODM-related functions.
Notably, ODM MPs, including George Aladwa, Beatrice Elachi, and Esther Passaris, have accompanied Ruto to church services, signaling a potential political deal in the works, despite ODM’s official stance of not having entered into any formal agreement with UDA.
As Ruto seeks to consolidate his support ahead of 2027, the political landscape is shifting, with new alliances taking shape in response to the evolving dynamics within Kenya Kwanza.
The impeachment of Gachagua has further complicated the situation, with Gachagua now signaling a potential alliance with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo suggests that these realignments could lead to a broad-based coalition, reminiscent of the 2002 Narc movement, that may ultimately determine the outcome of the 2027 election.
“The coming months will see major political realignments as key figures consolidate their positions and prepare for what promises to be a highly competitive race,” Orogo concluded.
The political chessboard in Kenya is more dynamic than ever, with alliances shifting and new players entering the game.
