Kenyans are eagerly awaiting the next political move by opposition leader Raila Odinga following his unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
According to political analysts, Odinga has four possible strategies as he recalibrates his political future.
One potential course of action is strengthening his ties with President William Ruto in a bid to secure a stake in the Kenya Kwanza government.
Political analyst Prof. Peter Kagwanja as quoted by section of media predicts that Odinga will remain politically active and seek influence within the government.
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“I believe that between now and early next year, Odinga will continue shaking the Kenya Kwanza ship to ensure his allies secure positions in government,” said Prof. Kagwanja.
Odinga has already hinted at fostering collaboration with President Ruto, signaling a possible shift in his political approach.
However, the veteran opposition leader is also expected to maintain his watchdog role, keeping the government in check while positioning himself for a possible sixth attempt at the presidency in 2027.
“Upon his return, Odinga may hold a public rally in one of his strongholds, where Ruto has been making inroads. He will consolidate his political base to leverage power and resources,” added Prof. Kagwanja, noting that President Ruto may resist Odinga’s demands.
Odinga, who has faced rare criticism for allegedly betraying his supporters, is expected to clarify his political intentions by mid-2026.
“It is clear that he is more influential as a kingmaker rather than as a direct contender,” Prof. Kagwanja observed.
Another possible path for Odinga is reuniting with fellow opposition leaders such as Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Kalonzo has previously urged Odinga to avoid working with the Kenya Kwanza government, arguing that such a move would damage his credibility.
“He must restore his reputation as a champion of democracy. How can he throw away all that credibility by aligning with dictatorial elements in the Kenya Kwanza administration? If ODM joins Ruto, they will be finished politically,” Kalonzo warned during a public rally in Kirinyaga County on February 22, 2025.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna also advised Odinga against supporting President Ruto.
“If he chooses to back Ruto, I will openly tell him it is a terrible decision,” Sifuna stated in a televised interview.
Another intriguing possibility is an alliance between Odinga and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in a bid to unseat Ruto in 2027.
Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni has identified Gachagua as a formidable challenger capable of taking on Ruto.
Political analyst Gasper Odhiambo, however, believes that Ruto is more concerned about Odinga aligning with the Gen Z movement, which has received public endorsement from former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“Ruto must have hoped that Odinga would win the AUC election so he could take over his political strongholds ahead of 2027,” Odhiambo remarked.
