Raila Odinga’s recent political moves are raising eyebrows, as his longstanding influence in Kenya’s politics faces new tests in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections.
The ODM leader’s recent statements suggest a series of conflicting strategies that have left both his supporters and critics wondering about his true intentions.
Initially, Raila seemed to signal a retreat from the frontline of politics, suggesting he might support President William Ruto’s re-election bid in exchange for significant political concessions, including the Deputy President’s slot.
This seemed to be a pragmatic approach to secure a position of influence for ODM within Ruto’s administration. However, in a sudden twist on December 1, Raila declared that ODM would field its own presidential candidate in 2027, reaffirming the party’s intent to form the next government.
This statement has thrown his political trajectory into uncertainty, leaving his supporters and critics alike scrambling to interpret his next move.
The timing of this announcement is crucial, coming just weeks after Ruto met with former President Uhuru Kenyatta in Gatundu, a move widely seen as an effort to solidify his support in the Mount Kenya region, which remains crucial to his political survival.
In light of this, Raila’s fluctuating stance on the 2027 election could be more than just political maneuvering—it may reflect a larger strategy to keep his options open while sending a strong message to both Ruto and his political base.
Raila’s decision to field a presidential candidate is especially significant given the evolving political dynamics in the country.
In the wake of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s ouster, Ruto has been grappling with the shifting allegiances of the Mount Kenya region.
The Kenyatta family’s support—or lack thereof—could play a critical role in shaping the future of the region’s politics.
If Raila can maintain his political relevance and broker deals with key players, including Uhuru’s allies, he might just carve a path to a strategic partnership with Ruto, or even build an opposition coalition of his own.
However, this gamble carries risks. Some within ODM have expressed unease about Raila’s indecisiveness. ODM’s Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, has been vocal in reaffirming that the party intends to run its own candidate in 2027, calling any suggestion of a deal with Ruto “baseless.”
This rhetoric stands in stark contrast to Raila’s earlier comments suggesting potential collaboration. The mixed signals are fueling internal discord, with party members questioning Raila’s ability to lead them through such a complex political landscape.
As Raila navigates these uncertain waters, political analysts have pointed out that his true strength lies in the grassroots support he has cultivated over the years.
Despite his fluctuating statements, ODM’s ongoing grassroots elections signal that Raila is committed to maintaining the party’s organizational strength in preparation for the upcoming polls.
ODM’s ability to rally its base will be pivotal as it seeks to contend with the possibility of a broad political coalition under Ruto’s leadership.
Furthermore, Raila’s latest remarks underscore a growing realization that, while he may be able to form alliances, his political future hinges on whether he can secure the backing of the masses. In a country where popular opinion often dictates political outcomes, Raila’s challenge will be to ensure his party remains united while positioning himself as the champion of the people.
In the meantime, the prospect of a new political alignment, possibly similar to the 2002 Rainbow Coalition, is gaining traction.
Figures such as Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and Moses Kuria have suggested that Raila could join forces with Ruto in the upcoming election, potentially forming a formidable alliance that could guarantee Ruto’s second term while giving Raila a key position in government.
Such an alliance would require both parties to navigate their past rivalries, but it could be a necessary compromise in a rapidly changing political environment.
Raila’s political journey remains as unpredictable as ever. Will he seize the opportunity to reshape his legacy and form a new coalition, or will his party’s internal divisions and fluctuating strategies derail his ambitions for 2027?
