A proposed oil refinery and petrochemical complex backed by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote could break ground in Kenya as early as September, President William Ruto’s economic adviser David Ndii has said.
The project, estimated to cost Ksh2.59 trillion ($20 billion), is planned for Lamu and is expected to serve the wider East African market.
Speaking at the Mwango Capital Markets Forum in Nairobi on Thursday, Ndii said Dangote’s group had offered East African countries a 30 per cent stake in the project.
Kenya has been offered a 10 per cent stake worth about Ksh64.74 billion ($500 million), while Ethiopia and Rwanda have also shown interest in taking part.
The combined regional stake is estimated at Ksh194.2 billion ($1.5 billion).
“The total for the region is about Ksh194.2 billion ($1.5 billion),” Ndii said.
He added that countries that may not commit to buying products from the refinery could still be accommodated through a backstop arrangement.
The planned facility would be modelled on Dangote’s refinery in Nigeria, which has a capacity of 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
According to Ndii, the project could draw crude from several countries in the region, including South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya.
He put potential regional crude production at more than 600,000 barrels per day, with South Sudan accounting for about 350,000 barrels, Uganda 250,000 barrels and Kenya about 120,000 barrels.
Dangote is separately expected to invest up to Ksh2.07 trillion ($16 billion) in the refinery, according to Bloomberg.
Dangote seeks government support
There are several conditions put forward by the Nigerian businessman on the construction of the proposed refinery.
According to Dangote, importing low-priced fuel from countries like Russia and India would hinder the competitiveness of the proposed Lamu refinery once it is commissioned.
He has also called for government support in providing land, helping secure regional financing and putting in place policies that would give the refinery a stable market.
Construction was previously expected to begin by October 2026, with Dangote saying the project could take less than four years to complete.
Once operational, the refinery is expected to process up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
The project is also expected to position Lamu as an important petroleum hub while helping East African countries cut their dependence on imported refined fuel.
As far as Kenya is concerned, the proposed investment would complement its efforts to transform Lamu into a regional transport and trading hub, although it is yet to receive adequate funding, government backing, and regional commitment to start construction of the refinery.
