Kenyan households may have to dig deeper into their pockets for some basic food items in the coming weeks, even as prices of several vegetables and fresh farm produce are expected to decline.
A new survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows that prices of key household commodities, including rice, bread, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar, cooking oil, cooking fat and packaged milk, are likely to rise over the next month.
The findings are contained in the Agriculture Sector Survey for May 2026, which captured the views of players in the agriculture sector on expected price movements and production trends.
According to the survey, concerns over the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran have continued to fuel fears of disruptions in global supply chains, with respondents expecting the situation to push up the cost of imported and processed food products.
Rising global oil prices and challenges in international shipping routes were cited among the factors likely to exert pressure on food prices in the country.
With many people currently struggling with issues concerning living expenses, it is likely that the coming rise in prices for basic commodities will cause an increase in spending in households over the next few weeks.
But on a positive note, the survey indicates that prices for some vegetables and other farm products are projected to reduce due to better supplies.
CBK said prices for spinach, sukuma wiki, indigenous vegetables, and unpackaged milk are expected to go down with increasing production levels.
The price reduction has generally been attributed to favorable weather patterns registered in the March-May long rains season.
Tomatoes, onions, potatoes, carrots, green maize, maize grain and green grams are also expected to benefit from improved harvests, although expectations varied from one region to another.
Despite fears about rising prices for certain essentials, the poll shows that inflation worries may not be as pressing now.
Some 65 per cent of those surveyed said that they expect the inflation rate to go up in the coming month, compared with 81 per cent last month. It appears that better food supplies could cushion people against higher prices.
Transportation costs continued to exert pressure on the prices of foods, with 95 per cent of those polled citing them as the major determinant of both retail and wholesale markets.
Among the other factors influencing the prices are weather conditions, input costs for farmers, labor costs and logistical issues.
Nevertheless, optimism prevails in the agricultural sector with more than 80 per cent of respondents expecting improvements in the next three months and even over the next year, driven by favorable weather conditions and various government programs.
It would mean that people might find themselves in a rather mixed market situation in the coming period – while some staple products may become more expensive, prices of common vegetables and fruits may fall because of their abundance.
