The Orange Democratic Movement is entering the most turbulent phase in its 20 year history, with intense succession battles and competing political interests now threatening to tear apart the party that Raila Odinga held together for decades.
ODMs 20th anniversary celebrations in Mombasa last week, the first major event without Raila, exposed the depth of internal fractures that many had long suspected but rarely witnessed in public. What was expected to be a unifying tribute to the partys legacy instead turned into a vivid display of rivalry, mistrust and open defiance.
At the centre of the storm is the unresolved question of who will lead ODM into the 2027 general election. With Railas absence creating a massive leadership vacuum, senior figures have begun aggressively positioning themselves, each wary of being outmanoeuvred in a party historically shaped by one dominant figure.
Despite repeated pleas from the organising committee, including Minority Leader Junet Mohameds warning against discussing the 2027 race, speaker after speaker ignored the directive.
Tensions were high as leaders took subtle and direct jabs at one another, signalling a battle for control that is already well underway.
Former deputy party leader Hassan Joho issued one of the strongest hints of division, alleging a plot to “sacrifice” him within the party, a claim that pointed to internal sabotage.
Meanwhile, Winnie Odinga bluntly reminded the gathering that ODM was not available “for sale,” a statement widely interpreted as resistance to any attempts to align the party with President William Rutos administration.
Secretary general Edwin Sifuna pushed back against behind the scenes negotiations, insisting that all major decisions, including potential political alliances, be settled through the National Delegates Conference.
Caught between warring camps, newly appointed party leader Senator Oburu Oginga looked visibly overwhelmed.
Unlike his late brother, he lacks the national appeal and political muscle to easily reconcile the competing interests now pulling ODM in different directions.
Analysts warn that the partys long term stability is at risk. Under Raila, ODM showcased a unique ability to contain internal dissent due to his charisma, cross ethnic support and unquestioned authority.
Without him, factions favouring cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration are clashing with those who insist that joining forces with the government would betray the partys base and derail 2027 ambitions.
The situation is further complicated by perceptions that President Ruto prefers a “malleable” ODM leadership he can work with, a factor fuelling suspicion and sharpening internal hostilities.
With neither camp willing to step back, ODM risks splintering into smaller blocs as leaders retreat into their regional or personal power bases ahead of 2027.
Party insiders say that unless a unifying figure emerges, something increasingly unlikely, ODM could face the most serious breakup in its history.
The Mombasa anniversary may have been intended as a celebration of two decades of political resilience, but it instead revealed a party hurtling toward a defining moment.
The 2027 succession battle is no longer just a leadership question, it is now a test of whether ODM can survive life after Raila.
