The impeachment of Deputy President Geoffrey Rigathi Gachagua will not mark the end of the drama, animosity, insults, and provocations in Kenyan politics. In fact, it’s just the beginning.
Now the real political game begins.
You are about to witness much that will entertain, frustrate, make you dizzy, nauseous, and perhaps even sick to your stomach.
Indeed, all this will happen, especially if you haven’t yet matured enough to understand that nothing is permanent, especially in the context of Kenyan politics.
Let me assure you: The beginning of the impeachment process targeting the highest-ranking politician from the Mount Kenya region is also the beginning of a new era of confrontational politics.
This is the definitive split between President William Ruto and his Deputy, Gachagua, a divide that will persist even after the next General Election.
Allow me to give you a hint; in Mount Kenya, Gachagua’s political stronghold, there is no quick forgiveness or political reconciliation when the region’s interests are at stake.
Believe it or not, even if Ruto and Gachagua were to reconcile today, and Gachagua tried to convince his people that “those who fight will make peace,” it would not work.
The political landscape in this region depends heavily on the ordinary citizens, not their leaders. At the grassroots level, President Ruto is already facing growing resentment. His conflict with Gachagua will not end there, and Gachagua’s supporters will help fuel the dislike for Ruto, starting now and continuing beyond his retirement.
Even if former President Uhuru Kenyatta were to join Gachagua in urging the residents to support Ruto again, it wouldn’t happen.
Even if Ruto appoints another politician from the region to take over from Gachagua—should he fail to survive the Senate or the Supreme Court—the people will not forgive him.
The fear of a backlash from the region’s voters in 2027 is why some politicians from Mount Kenya hesitated to support Gachagua’s impeachment, even though they had initially planned to.
Those who pushed ahead are anxiously awaiting the consequences in their constituencies, and I assure you, they will face the wrath of their voters. That is the nature of Mount Kenya politics.
Without a doubt, President Ruto is no political novice. He understands this situation well and is surely devising a plan to be re-elected and serve a second term without relying heavily on Mount Kenya’s support.
However, I must caution him: If he doesn’t find a way to split the 4 million-plus votes from this region, his path to re-election will be a tough one.
Securing 50% plus one of the vote, as required by the Constitution, won’t be easy. Unless, of course, he’s born under a lucky star in a potential runoff.
The only way for Ruto to divide Mount Kenya’s votes—although this will also face many obstacles—is by appointing Interior CS Prof. Kithure Kindiki to replace Gachagua. Doing so might win him some support in the Embu, Kirinyaga, and Meru areas.
These communities, located in the eastern part of Mount Kenya, have long complained of political marginalization by the western part of the region, which includes Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, and Nyandarua.
If Ruto can collect some votes from these areas and also gain the backing of ODM leader Raila Odinga, along with Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC and Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya, he might stand a chance in Mount Kenya.
I’ve done the political math, and recent elections have taught me a lot. Let’s not forget: In the 2022 election, Ruto defeated Raila by about 240,000 votes.
The margin was small, even after Ruto garnered almost 4 million votes from Mount Kenya. Even if you don’t know much about numbers, 4 million is far greater than 240,000, right?
Believe it or not, if Raila hadn’t stumbled by picking Martha Karua as his running mate in the last election and sidelining Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper, he would have beaten Ruto.
Here’s why: In the 2017 election, when Raila ran for president with Kalonzo as his running mate, the Ukambani region gave him a total of 1.12 million votes. That’s 300,000 more than the margin by which he lost to Ruto in 2022.
In the 2022 election, Raila received only 800,000 votes from Ukambani because Kalonzo wasn’t his running mate.
Martha Karua hurt Raila politically by not bringing in any substantial votes from Mount Kenya, but it’s understandable that Uhuru Kenyatta pressured him to choose her.
It’s still too early to tell whether Raila will run for president for the sixth time or support Ruto. But running again isn’t out of the question. If Raila doesn’t secure the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, expect him back in the race!
In short, the next General Election will be more competitive than any we’ve ever seen in Kenya. It will be unpredictable.
Now, let me share what I gathered about Gachagua’s impeachment. I followed the process closely as both a political analyst and a former court reporter.
From my perspective, there isn’t enough evidence to convict Gachagua in any court.
Most of the allegations are weak, and when given the chance to defend himself, Gachagua presented credible counterarguments.
If the matter reaches the courts, wait for the final verdict.
However, since this was a political decision made long ago, Gachagua had no chance of swaying the MPs with his evidence.
Unlike Parliament, the Senate and the Judiciary consider facts and evidence, not political theatrics.
Things will be different in those arenas. Since Kenya is a country governed by the rule of law, we should wait for the process to conclude and accept the final decision, even if reluctantly.
