Kenya’s political landscape is known for its volatility, and recent developments within the Azimio One Kenya Coalition suggest that the alliance could be on the verge of disintegration.
This possible fragmentation opens up new political possibilities for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, whose longstanding ambition has been to ascend to the highest office in the land.
With Raila Odinga potentially stepping back from frontline politics and venturing into the regional arena, Kalonzo may be positioning himself to take center stage, solidify his influence, and ultimately emerge as a leader of the opposition—or perhaps even as a future president.

Political analysts argue that should Raila accept a position as Chair of the African Union Commission, Azimio would be left without its most prominent figurehead, opening the door for Kalonzo to assume a more influential role within the coalition.
“The Azimio coalition is standing on shaky ground,” warns political commentator Dr. Emmanuel Kang’ethe . “The alliance’s internal dynamics and leadership struggles could result in a political realignment that Kalonzo Musyoka is uniquely positioned to capitalize on, should he play his cards right.”
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This shift in leadership, however, presents both opportunities and challenges for Kalonzo. As the coalition’s unity continues to erode, his ability to manage the conflicting interests within Azimio will be crucial.
His political acumen will determine whether the coalition survives or collapses—and whether he emerges as a central figure in the restructured alliance.

In a recent political gathering in Embu, Kalonzo, alongside DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and Jubilee Party’s Jeremiah Kioni, affirmed that Azimio would not fold or join the government if Raila’s African Union ambitions materialize.
Kalonzo’s message to Embu youth emphasized the coalition’s opposition role: “We have a lot of work to do, and we will do it as the official opposition.”
Jeremiah Kioni also echoed this sentiment, stating, “Raila has defined his path, and we wish him well. We will continue to work without him, united with Kenyans, to ensure that all is well.”
Political analyst Edwin Mwangi noted that Kalonzo’s bargaining power could increase in the event of an Azimio breakup.
“As the political leader of the Kamba community, which constitutes a significant voting bloc, Kalonzo has leverage that could either bolster his standing as an opposition leader or propel him toward a future alliance that brings him closer to his presidential ambitions,” Mwangi stated.

This was echoed by JKUAT political analyst Charles Mwangi, who suggested that Kalonzo might pursue new alliances beyond Azimio, potentially even forming ties with figures within President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government.
“Kalonzo has the experience and political instincts necessary to thrive in Kenya’s shifting political landscape. His role in the next phase of Kenya’s politics will depend on how effectively he can negotiate new alliances and build support across different constituencies,” he observed.
He concluded that the wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka currently stands at a crossroads as his ability to navigate the challenges of a fracturing Azimio coalition, forge new alliances, and expand his influence could determine his path toward the presidency.
“Whether as the leader of a revitalized opposition or as a key player in a new political realignment, Kalonzo Musyoka’s role in Kenya’s political future is far from over,”he said.