Tanzania has overtaken Uganda as Kenya’s leading source of informal imports, with food and livestock driving a sharp rise in goods crossing the southern border.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows informal trade between Kenya and Tanzania rose by 62 per cent between December 2024 and June 2025.
The value increased from about $786,343 to $1.28 million during the period.
The biggest change was recorded in imports into Kenya from Tanzania, which more than doubled from $426,386 in December to $974,818 in June.
Food and live animals accounted for 78.5 per cent of Kenya’s informal imports in June, up from 67.3 per cent six months earlier.
Tanzania supplied 47.4 per cent of Kenya’s informal imports in June, compared with only 18 per cent in December.
The goods included rice, goats, sugar, cattle and maize.
Rice was the leading product, valued at about $127,462, followed by goats at $125,917 and sugar at $125,144.
Cattle accounted for about $74,159 while maize was valued at $71,842.
The rise comes against a backdrop of food supply pressures in Kenya, with poor weather affecting agricultural production and increasing the country’s reliance on imports.
Kenya’s rice deficit remains particularly wide. The country consumes about 1.3 million tonnes annually but produces an average of only about 125,000 tonnes locally, forcing it to rely heavily on imports.
Tanzania has also become an important source of maize for Kenya. The neighbouring country supplied more than 95 per cent of Kenya’s maize imports in 2024.
The growing trade has strengthened the importance of border towns such as Namanga and Isebania.
Namanga accounted for 22.1 per cent of Kenya’s informal imports in June, while Isebania accounted for 13.8 per cent.
The development marks a shift in Kenya’s informal trade patterns.
Uganda, which has traditionally been one of Kenya’s major informal trading partners, recorded a decline in total informal trade with Kenya, falling from about $965,623 in December to $914,638 in June.
Kenya’s informal imports from Uganda also dropped from $336,809 to $317,497.
Overall, Kenya’s informal trade with neighbouring countries declined by 16.7 per cent during the period.
However, food imports moved in the opposite direction, highlighting the growing role of cross-border trade in keeping Kenyan markets supplied.
KNBS Director-General Macdonald George Obudho said informal cross-border trade remains important to the country.
“Informal cross-border trade contributes to macroeconomic stability and social development by enhancing food security and generating income, particularly for rural populations,” Obudho said.
The KNBS survey covered informal trade that is not captured through the normal customs system.
The figures show that as Kenya struggles to meet part of its food demand locally, traders are increasingly looking beyond Uganda and towards Tanzania to fill the gap.
