The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party’s steady run of by-election victories is increasingly shaping a political narrative that the ruling party remains firmly in control ahead of the 2027 General Election, even as public frustration over the economy and taxation continues to grow.
From Mbeere North to Muminji Ward, Evurore Ward, Endo Ward, Emurua Dikirr Constituency and even Isiolo County where Kenya Kwanza-backed candidate Tubi Mohammed Tubi clinched victory, the message emerging is becoming increasingly hard for the opposition to dismiss.
Political analysts say President William Ruto still appears to command a resilient political machine that remains effective at the grassroots level.
While critics argue that the Kenya Kwanza administration is losing public favour due to the high cost of living and unpopular fiscal policies, recent electoral contests suggest a more complex political reality on the ground.
The by-elections are exposing an uncomfortable truth for the opposition: public anger does not automatically translate into electoral defeat for the ruling party.
In most of the mini-polls, UDA and its allied candidates have demonstrated stronger grassroots organisation, tighter local coordination and a quicker ability to rally support behind their preferred candidates.
Even in areas where anti-government sentiment appeared dominant in public rallies and online spaces, the ruling side has still managed to deliver victories at the ballot.
These results are also reinforcing the perception that President Ruto’s political network remains deeply rooted at the village level through MPs, governors, MCAs, campaign agents and local mobilisers built since the 2022 elections.
Political analyst Edwin Mwangi says the latest outcomes point to one key advantage UDA still holds over its competitors — structure.
“Winning elections in Kenya is not just about public anger or social media noise. It is about organisation, polling agents, mobilisation and control of the grassroots narrative,” Mwangi says.
He adds that the opposition may be underestimating how entrenched the ruling party’s networks have become.
“Ruto has built a personal political infrastructure across the country. That system does not collapse simply because people are complaining about the economy,” he notes.
For opposition figures linked to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the by-election outcomes are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Despite energetic campaigns and efforts to frame the contests as referendums against the government, the opposition has struggled to convert widespread dissatisfaction into decisive electoral wins.
Political commentator Moses Wandu argues that the opposition’s biggest challenge remains fragmentation.
“What we are seeing is an opposition that is vocal but divided. UDA may not be perfect, but it still appears more organised nationally than its rivals,” Wandu says.
He further notes that repeated victories carry psychological weight in Kenyan politics, influencing defections and alliances long before a general election.
“Politicians tend to align with formations that look strong and stable. By-elections build momentum, and momentum shapes perception,” he adds.
The ruling party’s winning streak is also helping it counter claims that its strength is purely based on incumbency, instead projecting an image of cross-regional support.
