Kenya is bracing for a major shift in weather patterns, with the Kenya Meteorological Department warning that above average El Niño rains could begin as early as the last week of September.
The latest forecast released on Wednesday shows that the developing El Niño is intensifying, raising the possibility of heavy rains, flooding and landslides across parts of the country.
The rains are expected to continue through October, November and December, putting Kenyans at risk of a wet end to the year.
The warning comes after months of largely dry conditions in several parts of the country, raising concerns among farmers and communities that could quickly be forced to deal with excessive rainfall.
The World Meteorological Organisation has also warned that the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to experience wetter than normal conditions during the last quarter of 2026 as El Niño strengthens.
For Kenya, the October to December period is particularly important because the short rains contribute a significant share of annual rainfall in many areas.
The expected weather shift could bring relief to farmers who have struggled with dry conditions. However, the heavy rains could also create new problems, particularly in flood prone areas and communities living near rivers, wetlands and other vulnerable locations.
Kenya Met has previously warned that informal settlements, floodplain communities, arid and semi arid areas could face serious impacts from the El Niño rains.
The government will therefore face pressure to prepare drainage systems, roads, health facilities and other infrastructure before the rains intensify.
The forecast also comes with a wider warning. Global forecasters have raised concerns that the 2026 El Niño could become exceptionally strong, with its effects extending beyond East Africa.
For millions of Kenyans, the message from the weatherman is simple: the dry spell may soon give way to a very wet final quarter of the year.
Authorities and residents now have a few weeks to prepare before the rains begin.
