President William Ruto’s dream of consolidating Kenya Kwanza into a monolithic political force is facing an uphill task — and the biggest stumbling block appears to be National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula.
Unlike Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who agreed to dissolve the Amani National Congress (ANC) to merge with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Wetang’ula and his party, Ford-Kenya, have dug in their heels, vowing not to fold.
The fallout between Ruto and Wetang’ula is now threatening to unravel the Kenya Kwanza power matrix ahead of the 2027 elections.
Last week, Ford-Kenya held its National Executive Council (NEC) meeting at Elementaita Lodge in Naivasha and made a bold declaration: it would not dissolve to join UDA. The NEC resolved unanimously to maintain the party’s independence within the Kenya Kwanza coalition, directly defying President Ruto’s push for a unified political entity.
“The decision was unanimous and firm. Ford-Kenya remains a strong and independent party within Kenya Kwanza,” said Wetang’ula, asserting that diversity within the coalition is a strength, not a weakness.This stance infuriated President Ruto, who sources say had already banked on a Ford-Kenya merger to shore up his political base, especially after the ANC fold. Analysts now argue that Ruto is increasingly viewing Wetang’ula as defiant and politically unpredictable.
According to sources within Kenya Kwanza, Ruto’s frustrations stem from multiple strategic concerns:
Fear of Wetang’ula aligning with Gachagua camp
The entry of ODM leader Raila Odinga into the Kenya Kwanza orbit has destabilized internal power dynamics. Both Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, previously key lieutenants in Western Kenya, have seen their influence wane.
As 2027 politics take shape, the Mulembe Nation is emerging as a critical electoral bloc. Ruto fears that Wetang’ula could be co-opted by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s political camp, which is allegedly courting Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
“Wetang’ula is playing smart politics. By refusing to fold Ford-Kenya, he positions himself for post-2027 negotiations,” says political analyst Dr Elias Mokua. “Ruto is worried Wetang’ula could become a bargaining chip for his rivals, even a potential running mate to someone like Kalonzo or Gachagua.”
The fallout of the ANC merger
When Mudavadi dissolved ANC to join UDA, it was widely seen as a political gamble — and analysts now term it suicidal. Many ANC MPs feel politically homeless, and some have been seen warming up to Ford-Kenya. Wetang’ula is quietly reaping the benefits of Mudavadi’s misstep.
“The ANC merger was supposed to benefit Ruto, but instead, Ford-Kenya has become the biggest winner,” Mokua observes. “Now, Ruto is panicking that Ford-Kenya could become the magnet for disgruntled politicians within the coalition.”Fear of political blackmail
Ruto is wary of Wetang’ula’s ability to leverage his party leadership for political demands. In 2022, both Wetang’ula and Mudavadi famously switched from Raila’s camp to Ruto’s at the last minute, a move that shifted the balance of the election. Sources say Ruto fears a repeat — and possibly blackmail — especially if Wetang’ula uses his party’s numbers to demand high-level government positions, including Cabinet posts.
Post-2027 survival tactics
Wetang’ula is looking beyond 2027. Even if he’s not re-elected as Speaker, he wants to remain politically relevant through Ford-Kenya. The party has deep roots in Bungoma and is now positioning itself to receive more political parties funding, especially after absorbing disaffected ANC members.
“Retaining Ford-Kenya is Wetang’ula’s insurance policy,” says analyst Martin Andati. “He knows that numbers matter — for funding, negotiation, and influence.”The Mulembe kingpin factor
Ruto has consistently resisted the emergence of regional kingpins, preferring to deal directly with local electorates. His strategy in Mount Kenya — propping up Gachagua while sidelining others — mirrors his current tactics in Western Kenya. However, Wetang’ula’s firm grip on Ford-Kenya and his refusal to bow down has made him an obstacle to that plan.
“Ruto wants to go directly to the people in Mulembe Nation. He doesn’t want to empower someone like Wetang’ula who can later turn the tables on him,” says Andati.
