Kenya is buying more fuel from India as supplies from the Gulf region decline, with the change coming at a time when plans for a major Dangote refinery in the country are taking shape.
Data from Kpler and EOA shows that India has become an important source of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil for the Kenyan market.
The increase has come as fuel supplies from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has traditionally been one of Kenya’s main suppliers, have fallen in recent months.
The UAE supplied about 90,000 barrels of petroleum products per day to Kenya in January. By August, the figure had dropped to around 15,000 barrels per day.
Part of the gap is being filled by India, which has witnessed a rise in shipments of refined petroleum products from India to Kenya based on shipping data.
Based on shipping data from Vortexa and as reported by Argus, 60,000 tonnes of gasoline have been shipped from India to Kenya in April.
Despite the shift in supply, Kenya continues to import a relatively large amount of fuel.
News18 reported that petroleum product imports for Kenya were at around 200,000 barrels per day in July, reducing to around 185,000 barrels per day in August.
This indicates that while there is a disruption of supply of fuel from the Middle East, it has only resulted in Kenya sourcing its fuel from alternative sources and not a shortage of fuel in Kenya.
The growing reliance on India also comes as Kenya looks for alternative suppliers amid uncertainty over fuel supplies from the Gulf.
The situation could change further if plans for a major refinery in Kenya by businessman Aliko Dangote go ahead.
Dangote is expected to break ground on a proposed Ksh2.59 trillion ($20 billion) refinery and petrochemical complex in September.
His group has offered East African countries a 30 per cent stake in the project, with Kenya being offered a 10 per cent share valued at about Ksh64.74 billion ($500 million).
The refinery, together with additional port infrastructure, is expected to cost about Ksh2.59 trillion.
Dangote is separately expected to invest up to Ksh2.07 trillion ($16 billion) in the refinery. The facility is planned to have a processing capacity of up to 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, similar to his refinery in Nigeria.
If completed, the project could change how Kenya and other countries in the region source refined petroleum products, reducing reliance on imports from overseas markets.
For now, however, India is playing a bigger role in keeping Kenya’s fuel market supplied as the country adjusts to changes in global oil trade.
