A prominent constitutional lawyer has said that President William Ruto’s grip on the Mt Kenya vote has weakened ahead of the 2027 General Election, though he remains politically competitive in the vote-rich region.
Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi said President Ruto is unlikely to replicate the overwhelming support he secured in Mt Kenya during the 2022 election, when the region delivered him more than 80 per cent of its vote.
“I don't think President William Ruto will in 2027 get 80 per cent of the Mt Kenya he got in 2022, but it looks like today he has 50+1 of the Mountain's vote,” Ahmednasir said.Mt Kenya remains a critical electoral battleground, with its large voter base often determining national outcomes. Analysts say shifts in the region’s political mood could significantly shape coalition-building ahead of the next polls.
President Ruto rode to power in 2022 on a strong alliance with Mt Kenya leaders, capitalising on his deputy-at-the-time partnership with former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s backyard.
However, recent political realignments, economic pressures and emerging dissent among some regional leaders have raised questions about the durability of that support.
Ahmednasir’s remarks come amid growing debate over whether President Ruto can maintain a commanding majority in Mt Kenya or whether a fragmented vote could open space for opposition in 2027.
