A new survey by TIFA Research has revealed that 50 per cent of Kenyans do not have confidence in the integrity of the upcoming 2027 General Election, with political interference emerging as the leading concern.
The poll, conducted between May 2 and 6, 2025, paints a picture of growing public scepticism over Kenya’s electoral processes. Only 20 per cent of respondents expressed full confidence in the next elections, while 21 per cent said they are “somewhat confident.” The remaining majority voiced complete doubt.
Among those who lack confidence in the 2027 polls, 30 per cent cited political interference, 29 per cent blamed corruption and bribery, and 23 per cent pointed to a lack of trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
Other concerns included fears of violence or insecurity (7%), refusal to accept election outcomes (2%), technology failures (2%), past rigging history (1%), and inadequate preparation time (1%). Five per cent of respondents were unsure or did not provide a specific reason.
“These three categories—political interference, corruption, and IEBC mistrust—are overlapping concerns that reflect deep doubts about the integrity of official results,” TIFA noted in its report.
The study found that perceptions of past presidential elections significantly influence public confidence in 2027. A majority of those who believe the upcoming elections will be credible also trust the outcomes of the past three presidential contests.
Conversely, 64 per cent of those who doubt the 2027 elections believe none of the last three elections were legitimate.
Nationally, 69 per cent of Kenyans lack full confidence in the integrity of the previous presidential elections. Scepticism is highest in Nyanza (48% believe none of the past three were valid), while confidence is stronger in Central Rift (38%) and Mt Kenya (39%) regions.
The survey also revealed a worrying civic education gap. Nearly 68 per cent of Kenyans were unaware of the missed February 2024 constitutional deadline for reviewing constituency boundaries. Only eight per cent correctly identified the missed deadline, highlighting what TIFA describes as a “declining faith in election integrity and a lack of attention to key IEBC responsibilities.”
“These findings underscore the daunting task ahead for the soon-to-be-appointed new IEBC commissioners,” TIFA stated. “They must not only fulfil their mandates but also restore public trust in the electoral system.”
