Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has launched a scathing attack on the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), declaring the party politically “dead” following the death of its founder and longtime leader Raila Odinga.
In a hard-hitting political commentary, the outspoken lawyer dismissed efforts by interim party leader Oburu Odinga to project ODM as a viable national force, arguing that the party’s dominance was inseparable from Raila’s personal political capital.
Ahmednassir described Raila as the most consequential politician in Kenya over the past three decades, crediting him with building ODM into a formidable political machine and shaping national politics through successive election cycles.
“He built a political behemoth called ODM. He lost every presidential election he participated in but won in every post-presidential election realignment,” Ahmednassir said. “For three decades, Raila was Kenya’s political centre of gravity. Nothing moved without his nod or wink.”
He said Raila also ran what he termed “the biggest political laboratory in Kenya,” producing numerous political leaders, but insisted that Raila’s genius, networks and influence were personal and could not be inherited.
“Raila cannot be cloned. His political infrastructure can’t be inherited — not by his brother, not by his widow, not by his daughters,” he said. “Only self-made politicians thrive in Kenya’s politics.”
Ahmednassir warned that attempts to sustain ODM through nostalgia, rallies invoking Raila’s “last wishes,” or symbolic continuity were “a fool’s errand,” arguing that parties built around towering founders rarely survive their demise.
While maintaining that ODM’s collapse was inevitable, he said its decline could be managed, but faulted Oburu Odinga as ill-equipped to fill the vacuum left by his younger brother.
“Dr Oburu shares only a surname with Raila. Nothing else,” he said.
He was equally dismissive of other senior ODM figures, saying Siaya Governor James Orengo had “wilted with unfulfilled political ambitions,” while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, though energetic, was “not ready yet” to inherit national leadership.
According to Ahmednassir, ODM lacks a credible Luo heir capable of commanding Raila’s national stature.
Looking ahead to the 2027 General Election, Ahmednassir predicted that ODM would be “obliterated” in Nairobi, forecasting a high-stakes contest involving former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Babu Owino, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka playing a strategic role.
For ODM to remain relevant in the capital, he said, the party would have to “surrender to Babu Owino on his terms.”
He also projected a fragmented future for ODM at the Coast, predicting that Kilifi would fall under National Assembly Speaker Amason Kingi, Kwale under Cabinet Secretary Salim Mvurya and Governor Fatuma Achani, and Mombasa under Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho as “first among equals.”
Drawing a dramatic historical analogy, Ahmednassir likened ODM’s strategic choices to “Napoleon’s or Hitler’s retreat from Moscow,” urging the party to abandon ambitions in Nairobi, the Coast and Northern Kenya and instead consolidate its base in Luo Nyanza.
“Oburu will succeed beyond his wildest dreams if he wins everything in Luo Nyanza,” he said. “Any seat outside Luo Nyanza is a bonus.”
The remarks contrast sharply with Oburu Odinga’s recent statements, in which he vowed to lead “very tough negotiations” with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), insisting that ODM remains the country’s biggest party.
Speaking at a delegates’ meeting in Busia County, Oburu said ODM’s grassroots structures and national reach give it leverage ahead of the 2027 elections, defending the party’s participation in the broad-based government as a decision taken in the national interest.
“Once a party is built from the grassroots to the polling station, it cannot collapse simply because the founder has moved on,” Oburu said.
However, Ahmednassir dismissed such assertions as denial, arguing that without Raila Odinga, ODM lacks the cohesion, leadership and national appeal required to remain competitive.
“ODM has no Raila to run a national party,” he said. “Oburu should focus on protecting Luo Nyanza and accept the reality that Raila’s ODM is dead.”
