The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) has issued a warning of an impending El Niño, forecasting above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country beginning in October 2026.
According to Head of Public Weather Service at Kenya Met, Hannah Kimani, there is likely a 81 percent probability of a strong rainfall, with a 97 percent chance it could persist into early 2027. The El Niño is likely to raise fears of flooding, damage infrastructure and destroy property.
The department noted that parts of western Kenya and the Rift Valley may experience depressed rainfall in August and September. Coastal and Southeastern regions are expected to receive particularly high rainfall, while Nairobi and the central highlands will transition to intense rains.
Kenya Met has dispelled the misconception that El Niño is not rainfall, but a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to seven years.
On the other hand, health experts have warned high risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid and malaria, particularly in informal settlements, with vulnerable children, the elderly, pregnant women being highly affected.
Kenya Met has urged both national and county governments to activate disaster preparedness mechanisms, unblock drainage systems and stock relief supplies. Communities living in lowlands are encouraged to relocate to safer and higher areas and stay updated through official advisories.