The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has warned that weather conditions could push food prices higher in the coming months, with farmers in parts of the North Rift and Western Kenya already reporting crop failures.
The warning is contained in CBK’s latest Agriculture Sector Survey, which found that farmers and other players in the sector expect prices of some food items to rise in the coming month.
Potatoes are expected to record one of the biggest price increases, followed by traditional vegetables, peas, spinach and fresh unpackaged milk.
However, prices of some common foods, including maize grain and maize flour, are expected to decline.
Tomatoes, onions and carrots were also among the food items whose prices respondents expected to fall.
“Overall, the July 2026 survey points to a modest increase in near-term inflation expectations, mainly reflecting emerging supply-side risks,” CBK said.
The biggest worry is the expected maize harvest.
CBK said maize production remained subdued, with the expected output recording a balance of opinion of only two per cent.
The low expectation was linked to poor rainfall in key maize-growing areas.
Respondents also expected production of rice, millet, wheat, onions, beans and potatoes to decline.
This could put more pressure on food prices if farmers fail to get enough produce to the market.
Inflation concerns rise
The concerns over food production are already reflected in inflation expectations.
According to the survey, 56.9 per cent of respondents expect inflation to rise in the next month, up from 47.9 per cent in June.
Over the next three months, 57.5 per cent expect inflation to increase, compared to 48.5 per cent in the previous survey.
Weather remains the biggest concern for farmers and other players in the food sector.
About 94 per cent of respondents identified rainfall and other weather conditions as a major factor affecting food prices.
Transport costs followed closely, with 93 per cent of respondents pointing to them as another major factor.
The survey further indicates that 72 per cent of those interviewed noted the effect that the war between the US, Israel and Iran had on retail prices, through increased fuel prices and disruption of global supply chain.
Labor charges were reported by 71 per cent, while the cost of farm inputs was mentioned by 62 per cent of the interviewees.
The farmers are now asking for assistance in overcoming their production problems.
Some of the interventions include supporting the generators, irrigation pumps and pipelines, increasing agricultural subsidy and construction of feeder roads.
They also require better extension services and reduction in the cost of fuel to lower the cost of agriculture.
To the consumers, the situation might translate to uncertainty in the market because poor rains may lead to shortage of key food commodities in the coming months.