Almost half of Kenyans who support the Broad-Based Government (BBG) believe ODM leader Raila Odinga will ultimately throw his weight behind President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027, a new opinion poll has revealed.
Findings from a survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), released Wednesday, show that 46 per cent of BBG supporters expect Odinga to back Ruto for a second term, despite widespread national opposition to the political arrangement. A quarter of the same group, however, predict that Odinga will eventually rejoin the opposition.
The BBG, an informal coalition between Ruto and Odinga forged after the ODM leader’s failed African Union Commission bid, has sharply divided Kenyans. Nationally, only 29 per cent of respondents said they support the arrangement, while 64 per cent opposed it, citing concerns that it undermines democracy and primarily serves the personal interests of the two leaders.
Regional opposition is particularly strong in Mt. Kenya (83 per cent) and Lower Eastern (75 per cent), strongholds of Ruto’s estranged deputy Rigathi Gachagua and Azimio co-principal Kalonzo Musyoka respectively.
TIFA’s report describes Odinga’s political brand as being “at a crossroads.” Once seen as the undisputed face of the opposition, his cooperation with Ruto has left supporters divided over his political future. Nationally, 23 per cent want him to return to the opposition and run for president, 17 per cent prefer he back another opposition candidate, while 14 per cent say he should retire from politics altogether.
The poll, conducted between August 23 and September 3 among 2,024 adults across all 47 counties, also shows limited confidence in Ruto’s re-election prospects. Only 32 per cent of Kenyans support a second term for the president, while more than half are opposed.
TIFA further notes that public frustration with established political parties is deepening. Both UDA and ODM have seen declining support since 2022, while the proportion of undecided voters has surged to 43 per cent — now the single largest bloc.
On Monday, during celebrations to mark ODM’s 20th anniversary, Odinga urged his party members to exercise restraint in discussing 2027 strategies, saying the party must remain focused and united under its current political roadmap.