A majority of supporters allied to Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua believe the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) will abandon the broad-based government and rejoin the opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election.
This is according to a survey released by research firm TIFA on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, which indicates that 80 per cent of Gachagua’s supporters expect ODM to exit the government arrangement.
The survey shows that supporters of the united opposition bloc hold the strongest view that the party will return to the opposition, with 80 per cent expressing this belief. Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party followed closely, with 75 per cent of its supporters expecting ODM to rejoin the opposition.
Jubilee Party supporters also largely shared this view, with 71 per cent saying ODM is likely to leave the broad-based government. However, 19 per cent of Jubilee supporters believe the party will remain within the government arrangement.
Nationally, the findings indicate a divided public opinion, with 50 per cent of Kenyans expecting ODM to return to the opposition ahead of the 2027 polls.
Opinion among ODM supporters themselves remains split. While 50 per cent believe the party should rejoin the opposition, 38 per cent favour remaining within the broad-based government.
A similar division is evident among supporters of President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). According to the survey, 46 per cent of UDA supporters believe ODM will stay in the government, while 36 per cent think it will return to the united opposition coalition.
The survey findings come amid heightened political pressure on ODM to reconsider its relationship with President Ruto’s administration.
Days before the release of the report, Gachagua publicly urged ODM to abandon its cooperation with the President, warning that continued association with Ruto could weaken the party.
“Ruto is killing ODM. My advice to ODM is that you will lose every seat in Nairobi if you keep following Ruto,” Gachagua said during a DCP meeting in Nairobi in December 2025. “He only has 24,000 votes in a corner here in Lang’ata. Where else will they get their seats from while clinging to Ruto?”